diff --git a/src/lib/server/services/confirmationThreshold.ts b/src/lib/server/services/confirmationThreshold.ts
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..20c438eb
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/lib/server/services/confirmationThreshold.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,91 @@
+import GC from "../../global-constants.js";
+import db from "../db/db.js";
+
+export type Side = "UP" | "DOWN" | null;
+
+/** Binary side: UP is healthy; DOWN/DEGRADED are unhealthy; everything else (NO_DATA) is neutral. */
+export function sideOf(status: string | null | undefined): Side {
+  if (status === GC.UP) return "UP";
+  if (status === GC.DOWN || status === GC.DEGRADED) return "DOWN";
+  return null;
+}
+
+export interface ResolveInput {
+  monitor_tag: string;
+  ts: number;
+  rawStatus: string;
+  threshold: number; // >= 2 to damp; 1 behaves as off (any opposite observation confirms instantly)
+}
+
+export interface ResolveResult {
+  /** Effective status to commit for this minute. */
+  status: string;
+  /** True while holding the confirmed side (pending) — the caller must blank latency/error for this row. */
+  pendingHold: boolean;
+}
+
+/** Minimal data access this resolver needs; defaults to the db singleton, injectable for tests. */
+export interface ConfirmationDeps {
+  getRecentObservedSamples: typeof db.getRecentObservedSamples;
+  backfillConfirmedStatus: typeof db.backfillConfirmedStatus;
+}
+
+/**
+ * Resolve the status to commit for one scheduled-check observation under Confirmation
+ * Threshold damping (issue #712 / ADR 0009).
+ *
+ * IMPORTANT ordering contract: this MUST be called BEFORE the current row at `ts` is
+ * persisted. It anchors on the most recent stored sample (timestamp < ts); if the row at
+ * `ts` were already written, it would mis-anchor the confirmed side. The scheduled-check
+ * write path calls this, then persists the row with the returned status.
+ */
+export async function resolveConfirmedStatus(
+  input: ResolveInput,
+  deps: ConfirmationDeps = db,
+): Promise<ResolveResult> {
+  const { monitor_tag, ts, rawStatus, threshold } = input;
+  const observedSide = sideOf(rawStatus);
+
+  // Neutral observation (NO_DATA): pass through untouched (full neutrality is hardening slice #756).
+  if (observedSide === null) {
+    return { status: rawStatus, pendingHold: false };
+  }
+
+  const recent = await deps.getRecentObservedSamples(monitor_tag, ts, threshold);
+
+  // Cold start: no prior observation to anchor against -> commit immediately.
+  if (recent.length === 0) {
+    return { status: rawStatus, pendingHold: false };
+  }
+
+  // A null stored status (unknown anchor) is treated as no-flip: commit the observation as-is.
+  const confirmedStatus = recent[0].status ?? rawStatus;
+  const confirmedSide = sideOf(confirmedStatus);
+
+  // Same side, or anchor is neutral: no flip — commit the observed status (and its severity).
+  if (confirmedSide === null || observedSide === confirmedSide) {
+    return { status: rawStatus, pendingHold: false };
+  }
+
+  // Opposite side: count the trailing pending run of opposite-side observations (incl. current).
+  let pendingRun = 1;
+  const pendingTimestamps: number[] = [];
+  for (const row of recent) {
+    if (sideOf(row.raw_status) === observedSide && sideOf(row.status) === confirmedSide) {
+      pendingRun++;
+      pendingTimestamps.push(row.timestamp);
+    } else {
+      break;
+    }
+  }
+
+  if (pendingRun >= threshold) {
+    const message =
+      observedSide === "DOWN" ? `Down confirmed after ${threshold} consecutive checks` : null;
+    await deps.backfillConfirmedStatus(monitor_tag, pendingTimestamps, message);
+    return { status: rawStatus, pendingHold: false };
+  }
+
+  // Still pending: hold the confirmed side, display clean.
+  return { status: confirmedStatus, pendingHold: true };
+}